0x51657a1434674e1b64f7dd97ebda04e525ba8ba4
0x51657a1434674e1b64f7dd97ebda04e525ba8ba4
- Realised P&L
- $-2.22
- Volume
- $96.44
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $3.77
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? · No | 0.920 | 1.000 | $2.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.948 | $1.09 | −$0.00 |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.575 | 0.430 | $0.50 | −$0.17 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · No | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.04at 0.840Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
- +$-0.10at 0.100Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?
- +$-0.10at 0.140ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?
- +$-0.58at 0.058Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-16 02:58 | Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.09 |
| 02-11 00:33 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $3.09 |
| 02-11 00:30 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.839999796 | $3.13 |
| 02-10 19:18 | Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | BUY | 0.9199999816 | $2.00 |
| 02-10 03:00 | Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.94 |
| 02-10 02:57 | Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.04 |
| 02-10 02:43 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | SELL | 0.025 | $0.43 |
| 02-10 01:14 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | BUY | 0.0583928908 | $1.01 |
| 02-09 04:02 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.7399999146 | $1.56 |
| 02-06 18:46 | Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $1.71 |
| 02-06 17:18 | Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.579999942 | $1.20 |
| 02-06 04:00 | Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.5699998385 | $1.20 |
| 02-06 03:39 | ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.36 |
| 02-06 03:34 | ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.47 |