bullishkirby
0x515e2144bf38402568979db4ea7f6b64636c8309
- Realised P&L
- $-110.3k
- Volume
- $6.81M
- Markets traded
- 200
- Open portfolio
- $150.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded200
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$56.5kat 0.500Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$41.3kat 0.500Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$30.4kat 0.179Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$25.4kat 0.541Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$25.3kat 0.438US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 08:12 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $4.0k |
| 09-10 05:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.54 | $6.9k |
| 09-10 04:57 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.3k |
| 09-07 22:10 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.89 | $206.57 |
| 09-06 12:40 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.89 | $526.29 |
| 08-29 09:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | SELL | 0.984 | $32.27 |
| 08-29 09:24 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? | SELL | 0.998 | $37.58 |
| 08-15 16:21 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.012 | $11.26 |
| 08-15 16:16 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.012 | $84.23 |
| 08-15 16:07 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.011 | $2.68 |
| 08-15 15:55 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.0116127061 | $217.71 |
| 08-15 15:35 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.01 | $78.61 |
| 08-14 01:52 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.02 | $72.39 |
| 08-12 16:08 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.016 | $0.64 |
| 08-12 14:42 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.014 | $1.80 |