0x51176f3542583a3d795acc0f067ce298bdec7950
- Realised P&L
- $0.45
- Volume
- $103.81
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $15.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.585 | $3.08 | +$1.08 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.625 | $2.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? · No | 0.715 | 0.792 | $2.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.670 | $2.04 | +$0.15 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.340 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July? · Yes | 0.264 | 0.254 | $1.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.490 | 0.355 | $1.06 | −$0.41 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.022 | $0.19 | −$1.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.95at 0.480Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,020 Week of July 27 2026?
- +$1.74at 0.420Will MGM Resorts (MGM) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.69at 0.540Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
- +$1.60at 0.550Will Trump say "Motor City" during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.47at 0.520Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 08:14 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:14 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July? | BUY | 0.2639999229 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:13 | Will Trump say "Transgender" during his Executive Order signing? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:12 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.4699998919 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 23:57 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999468 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 15:53 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 06:53 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 22:48 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? | BUY | 0.7149997444 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 13:42 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 03:44 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 19:44 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 11:43 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.619999895 | $1.89 |
| 07-30 13:07 | Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.49 | $1.47 |
| 07-29 15:02 | Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.6499997374 | $1.98 |
| 07-29 00:10 | Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5199998953 | $1.59 |