PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

oliveiraielson

0x50f4e5c79e05cd27bd08e47b70518732af2804d4

Realised P&L
$-377.48
Volume
$171.1k
Markets traded
632
Open portfolio
$979.82

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded632
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration37.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration8.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · No0.7700.715$71.50−$5.50
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-07 House election by 15%-20%? · No0.8600.843$42.13−$0.88
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-09 House election by 0%-3%? · No0.8500.825$41.25−$1.25
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-10 House election by 5%-10%? · No0.7980.798$39.92+$0.03
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-04 House election by 50%-55%? · No0.9180.779$38.98−$6.92
Will Barcelona finish top 8 in UCL league phase? · Yes0.8200.715$35.75−$5.25
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-04 House election by 55%-60%? · No0.7040.696$34.77−$0.42
Will Bad Bunny be featured on GTA VI: The Album? · Yes0.6100.630$31.50+$1.00
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 25%-30%? · No0.8470.811$30.11−$1.34
Will Widow's Bay rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026? · No0.6000.600$30.00+$0.00
Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? · No0.8380.595$29.73−$12.17
Will Poland be promoted to Nations League A in 2026-27? · Yes0.5400.570$28.50+$1.50
Will mada have the most kills for NRG at VALORANT Champions 2026? · No0.6300.565$28.25−$3.25
Will the Seattle Seahawks win more than 10.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season? · O 10.50.6200.550$27.50−$3.50
Will Heated Rivalry rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026? · No0.7000.470$23.50−$11.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-01 00:16Will Ethereum hit $4k by June 30, 2027?SELL0.39$19.50
10-01 00:16Mamdani wears a yarmulke by the end of Channukah?SELL0.171112$8.56
10-01 00:16Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?SELL0.2$1.28
09-30 16:34Will Carlos Viana win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?SELL0.56$0.15
09-30 16:25Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?SELL0.815$81.51
09-30 16:25Will Omarion Hampton have 749.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?SELL0.29$5.80
09-30 16:25Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?SELL0.48$16.80
09-30 16:25Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-09 House election by 6%-9%?SELL0.79914$39.96
09-30 16:24Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $200M one day after launch?SELL0.49$9.80
09-30 15:50Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2026-27 Vezina Trophy?SELL0.86$43.00
09-30 15:50Will Solary win WSCI 2026?SELL0.58$0.23
09-30 11:33Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-14 House election by 20%-25%?SELL0.13$0.78
09-30 07:32Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flame?SELL0.1301$6.50
09-30 06:27Will Zane Gonzalez finish as a top-5 K in the 2026-27 NFL season?SELL0.05$2.00
09-30 04:25Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat?SELL0.05$0.45