DonPanic
0x50b242e0b9ac75359464c5b3be62ad6b42d8c94a
- Realised P&L
- $10.5k
- Volume
- $1.94M
- Markets traded
- 1,821
- Open portfolio
- $10.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,821
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration9.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.886Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July?
- +$1.5kat 0.461US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
- +$984.00at 0.184Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$965.23at 0.335US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$835.36at 0.619Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 17:16 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.66 | $136.71 |
| 09-17 10:29 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $6.00 |
| 09-17 10:08 | Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.008 | $3.05 |
| 09-15 16:38 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | BUY | 0.1279427273 | $56.29 |
| 09-14 21:23 | Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $159.60 |
| 09-14 08:17 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.55 | $12.65 |
| 09-13 22:03 | Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $94.62 |
| 09-13 21:50 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.566294714 | $376.46 |
| 09-13 21:46 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.59 | $16.54 |
| 09-13 14:24 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $37.50 |
| 09-12 22:24 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.86 | $130.44 |
| 09-12 16:53 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30? | BUY | 0.05 | $17.96 |
| 09-12 16:21 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $25.80 |
| 09-12 16:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $195.00 |
| 09-12 14:33 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? | BUY | 0.88 | $13.20 |