DonPanic
0x50b242e0b9ac75359464c5b3be62ad6b42d8c94a
- Realised P&L
- $13.9k
- Volume
- $1.95M
- Markets traded
- 1,835
- Open portfolio
- $5.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,835
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration14.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.886Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July?
- +$1.5kat 0.461US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
- +$984.00at 0.184Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$965.23at 0.335US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$835.36at 0.619Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 20:20 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | SELL | 0.998 | $200.60 |
| 10-06 12:11 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.664 | $66.41 |
| 10-06 12:07 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.662 | $22.89 |
| 10-06 11:36 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $182.00 |
| 09-29 16:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $90.00 |
| 09-28 15:59 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.987 | $394.80 |
| 09-28 15:58 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $65.00 |
| 09-25 11:16 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $65.00 |
| 09-24 11:35 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $294.00 |
| 09-22 10:36 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $110.98 |
| 09-22 10:34 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $130.18 |
| 09-17 17:16 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.66 | $136.71 |
| 09-17 10:29 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $6.00 |
| 09-17 10:08 | Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.008 | $3.05 |
| 09-15 16:38 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | BUY | 0.1279427273 | $56.29 |