Nalfo
0x50a0ca8f123ba3d3e8608d2eec5998d3b93af508
- Realised P&L
- $45.36
- Volume
- $12.2k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $245.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.809 | 0.887 | $54.85 | +$4.85 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.620 | $34.44 | +$4.44 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.830 | 0.875 | $31.63 | +$1.63 |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? · No | 0.945 | 0.954 | $30.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.880 | 0.865 | $29.49 | −$0.51 |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.915 | $19.68 | −$0.32 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? · No | 0.850 | 0.825 | $19.41 | −$0.59 |
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.571 | 0.410 | $17.94 | −$7.06 |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.275 | $7.61 | −$5.39 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.07 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.38at 0.012Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$19.69at 0.016Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$7.79at 0.770Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$6.43at 0.350Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- +$5.56at 0.018Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 08:23 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.4699999888 | $13.00 |
| 07-20 08:03 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.5399999971 | $30.00 |
| 07-16 21:33 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $31.42 |
| 07-16 21:18 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.9299999651 | $20.00 |
| 07-15 21:19 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5399999903 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 13:31 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.349999993 | $25.00 |
| 07-14 13:27 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5942633693 | $15.00 |
| 07-14 13:27 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999978 | $30.00 |
| 07-12 20:55 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.92 | $47.78 |
| 07-07 20:25 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7699999904 | $40.00 |
| 07-07 20:01 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | BUY | 0.8499999957 | $20.00 |
| 07-07 19:59 | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | BUY | 0.9447039915 | $30.00 |
| 07-04 16:04 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.024 | $6.63 |
| 06-30 16:27 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.027 | $7.17 |
| 06-30 16:21 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.037 | $40.47 |