airdropper
0x4fd899f1001b62d6a8713d72878eae732f82af91
- Realised P&L
- $660.21
- Volume
- $2.56M
- Markets traded
- 729
- Open portfolio
- $196.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded729
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$890.00at 0.100Will Kamala Harris get 88m or more votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
- +$482.74at 0.250Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$308.40at 0.383Will there be 155,000,000-160,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?
- +$290.98at 0.030Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
- +$213.14at 0.001Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 00:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET | BUY | 0.28 | $5.60 |
| 08-28 10:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | SELL | 0.76 | $75.99 |
| 08-27 09:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET | SELL | 0.49 | $49.00 |
| 08-27 08:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET | SELL | 0.03 | $0.75 |
| 08-27 08:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET | BUY | 0.22 | $22.00 |
| 08-27 08:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET | BUY | 0.09 | $9.00 |
| 08-22 00:52 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $180.00 |
| 08-22 00:51 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $4.19 |
| 08-22 00:49 | Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.003 | $5.84 |
| 08-19 15:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 05:04 | Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.021 | $3.93 |
| 08-03 05:04 | Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.022 | $17.89 |
| 08-03 01:40 | Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.003 | $6.00 |
| 07-23 04:55 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster? | SELL | 0.0061666667 | $1.85 |
| 07-23 03:08 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster? | SELL | 0.04 | $2.00 |