absol00b
0x4fd7f4683186852a8c299d4f819521105d7f5a31
- Realised P&L
- $-4.3k
- Volume
- $165.2k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $346.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.665 | $346.54 | +$28.66 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? · No | 0.071 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.8k |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$363.74 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$116.52 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$71.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$983.80at 0.779Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?
- +$291.45at 0.054Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$43.18at 0.931Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$30.00at 0.170Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?
- +$7.35at 0.973Will GPT-5 be released on August 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 18:47 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.63 | $638.69 |
| 09-15 15:08 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6099999994 | $317.88 |
| 09-15 15:05 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.13 | $337.76 |
| 09-15 14:46 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.64 | $648.83 |
| 09-15 14:45 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.13 | $675.53 |
| 09-15 14:32 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.5k |
| 10-29 01:54 | Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? | SELL | 0.0117785523 | $23.91 |
| 10-14 18:30 | Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025 | SELL | 0.018 | $21.60 |
| 10-14 18:29 | Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? | SELL | 0.0209350687 | $27.22 |
| 09-24 02:08 | Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.035 | $7.39 |
| 09-24 02:07 | Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025 | BUY | 0.09 | $68.50 |
| 09-24 02:05 | Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? | BUY | 0.011 | $1.14 |
| 09-17 18:33 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $634.37 |
| 09-13 01:48 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.931 | $591.19 |
| 09-13 01:04 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.1069916818 | $588.45 |