chatgpt.com
0x4fadc974fb701b133055866022c89c5e0f7a1480
- Realised P&L
- $-8.7k
- Volume
- $17.47M
- Markets traded
- 8,185
- Open portfolio
- $7.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded8,185
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration30.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$698.64at 0.018Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?
- +$556.76at 0.060Trump's birthright citizenship ban unblocked before July?
- +$404.35at 0.003Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election?
- +$325.43at 0.004Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?
- +$298.02at 0.036Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-24 21:58 | Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? | BUY | 0.16 | $100.00 |
| 06-03 12:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET | BUY | 0.662183295 | $100.00 |
| 03-10 16:45 | Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.035 | $0.46 |
| 12-04 22:05 | Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-12-07? | BUY | 0.59 | $2.95 |
| 12-04 22:05 | Will SC Recife vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 12-04 22:05 | Will SC Recife win on 2025-12-07? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.70 |
| 11-27 13:03 | Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in November 2025? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.08 |
| 11-23 00:34 | Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale? | SELL | 0.999 | $20.03 |
| 11-21 18:36 | Will Amazon dip to $216 in November? | SELL | 0.999 | $50.04 |
| 11-19 01:25 | Will no Senate vote on an Epstein disclosure bill occur by December 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $20.12 |
| 11-18 13:25 | Over $100M committed to the Solomon public sale? | SELL | 0.981 | $49.25 |
| 11-18 13:21 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $169.11 |
| 11-12 13:23 | Will Trump send the national guard to New York City by December 31? | BUY | 0.81 | $5.55 |
| 11-12 01:16 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 11-11 13:08 | Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025? | BUY | 0.92 | $3.47 |