PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

chatgpt.com

0x4fadc974fb701b133055866022c89c5e0f7a1480

Realised P&L
$-8.7k
Volume
$17.47M
Markets traded
8,185
Open portfolio
$7.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded8,185
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration30.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.8560.923$2.4k+$180.03
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4330.655$1.7k+$564.63
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? · Yes0.7800.994$993.96+$214.00
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · Yes0.7650.952$951.50+$186.50
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.2980.247$647.45$132.66
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.9210.998$243.08+$18.68
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? · No0.8260.925$153.79+$16.46
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · Yes0.7171.000$60.30+$17.09
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? · No0.8301.000$50.10+$8.52
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.8501.000$50.09+$7.51
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9630.981$49.02+$0.88
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? · Yes0.4730.710$42.59+$14.20
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No0.8911.000$40.18+$4.34
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? · No0.7500.972$35.52+$8.10
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? · No0.8901.000$26.55+$2.92

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-24 21:58Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil?BUY0.16$100.00
06-03 12:59Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ETBUY0.662183295$100.00
03-10 16:45Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?BUY0.035$0.46
12-04 22:05Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-12-07?BUY0.59$2.95
12-04 22:05Will SC Recife vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?BUY0.23$2.30
12-04 22:05Will SC Recife win on 2025-12-07?BUY0.17$1.70
11-27 13:03Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in November 2025?SELL0.999$5.08
11-23 00:34Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale?SELL0.999$20.03
11-21 18:36Will Amazon dip to $216 in November?SELL0.999$50.04
11-19 01:25Will no Senate vote on an Epstein disclosure bill occur by December 31?SELL0.999$20.12
11-18 13:25Over $100M committed to the Solomon public sale?SELL0.981$49.25
11-18 13:21Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?SELL0.67$169.11
11-12 13:23Will Trump send the national guard to New York City by December 31?BUY0.81$5.55
11-12 01:16Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?BUY0.91$4.55
11-11 13:08Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025?BUY0.92$3.47