0x4F82Fb25D000515b11F95b628c94ad640ea09725-1767562058183
0x4f82fb25d000515b11f95b628c94ad640ea09725
- Realised P&L
- $-372.59
- Volume
- $36.5k
- Markets traded
- 362
- Open portfolio
- $13.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded362
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.478 | 0.470 | $9.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.222 | 0.204 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.500 | 0.885 | $0.89 | +$0.39 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.285 | $0.77 | −$0.23 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.045 | $0.51 | −$1.49 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.045 | $0.41 | −$2.59 |
| Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.120 | $0.24 | −$0.76 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.115 | $0.12 | −$0.39 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET · Up | 0.673 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$103.58at 0.260Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
- +$82.23at 0.426Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
- +$67.14at 0.384Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
- +$55.40at 0.199Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
- +$52.73at 0.086Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 00:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 00:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 00:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | BUY | 0.7183621114 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 00:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | BUY | 0.6799999978 | $25.00 |
| 10-16 00:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | BUY | 0.6336633663 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 00:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 00:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 00:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | BUY | 0.2099999983 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 00:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | BUY | 0.1799999986 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 00:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 00:25 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 00:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $25.00 |
| 10-16 00:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 00:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET | BUY | 0.9299998419 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 00:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |