ZePenguin
0x4f69907f0b63c561926d20b97e3e38d373e849dd
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $3.44M
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $937.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.780 | 0.925 | $863.62 | +$135.38 |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.079 | $73.96 | −$76.74 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.08 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.77 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.55 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$62.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.015Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
- +$720.00at 0.400Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$410.40at 0.280Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
- +$403.06at 0.514Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition
- +$178.20at 0.518Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-08 15:18 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.78 | $728.24 |
| 05-08 15:18 | Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.1599551857 | $150.70 |
| 03-12 10:07 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.12 |
| 03-12 10:07 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.56 |
| 03-12 10:07 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)? | BUY | 0.89 | $250.09 |
| 03-12 10:07 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.017 | $4.78 |
| 03-12 10:07 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.07 | $19.67 |
| 03-12 09:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.21 |
| 03-12 09:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $2.42 |
| 03-12 09:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.017 | $10.30 |
| 03-12 09:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.07 | $42.41 |
| 03-12 09:58 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)? | BUY | 0.8785825576 | $532.32 |
| 02-23 10:16 | Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | BUY | 0.21 | $6.30 |
| 02-23 10:15 | Will Jasmine Crockett lose the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election? | BUY | 0.78 | $23.40 |
| 01-13 10:13 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4308920863 | $299.47 |