hlmhts
0x4f65761a265c6c9b2e7d0bb475e148939f8642c4
- Realised P&L
- $19.50
- Volume
- $705.46
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $78.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)79.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.715 | $28.60 | +$14.20 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.963 | 0.989 | $19.77 | +$0.51 |
| Will Erling Braut Haaland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.740 | $14.80 | +$0.40 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.510 | 0.645 | $12.90 | +$2.70 |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.105 | $2.10 | −$7.70 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.139 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.80at 0.560Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$6.98at 0.710Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
- +$5.40at 0.460Will Vanilla Ninja win Eesti Laul 2026?
- +$5.20at 0.740Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
- +$4.97at 0.502Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 19:44 | Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.981 | $37.28 |
| 09-29 16:02 | Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $36.48 |
| 09-21 15:08 | Will Erling Braut Haaland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $14.40 |
| 09-21 13:36 | Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | BUY | 0.49 | $4.90 |
| 09-21 13:33 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.923 | $18.46 |
| 04-28 17:08 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.983 | $24.18 |
| 04-26 19:52 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $6.16 |
| 04-11 11:15 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.71 | $17.09 |
| 04-08 09:43 | Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8? | BUY | 0.85 | $14.52 |
| 04-01 10:28 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $14.43 |
| 03-23 11:56 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | BUY | 0.994 | $14.31 |
| 03-18 12:00 | Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.30 |
| 03-15 10:23 | Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.94 | $12.80 |
| 03-08 12:41 | Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | BUY | 0.829999956 | $10.00 |
| 03-08 12:31 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.2979998528 | $1.00 |