PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

hlmhts

0x4f65761a265c6c9b2e7d0bb475e148939f8642c4

Realised P&L
$19.50
Volume
$705.46
Markets traded
31
Open portfolio
$78.17

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded31
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample24 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)79.2%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.3600.715$28.60+$14.20
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9630.989$19.77+$0.51
Will Erling Braut Haaland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? · Yes0.7200.740$14.80+$0.40
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.5100.645$12.90+$2.70
5kt meteor strike in 2026? · Yes0.4900.105$2.10−$7.70
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No0.3000.000$0.00−$9.00
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.1390.000$0.00−$2.78

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-21 19:44Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?SELL0.981$37.28
09-29 16:02Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?BUY0.96$36.48
09-21 15:08Will Erling Braut Haaland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?BUY0.72$14.40
09-21 13:36Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?BUY0.49$4.90
09-21 13:33Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?BUY0.923$18.46
04-28 17:08Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?BUY0.983$24.18
04-26 19:52Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?BUY0.996$6.16
04-11 11:15Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?BUY0.71$17.09
04-08 09:43Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?BUY0.85$14.52
04-01 10:28US forces enter Iran by March 31?BUY0.995$14.43
03-23 11:56Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?BUY0.994$14.31
03-18 12:00Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?BUY0.86$4.30
03-15 10:23Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?BUY0.94$12.80
03-08 12:41Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?BUY0.829999956$10.00
03-08 12:31Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY0.2979998528$1.00