0x4ef9aaa3766ef2e3ccd6186ec999f65e11147a38
0x4ef9aaa3766ef2e3ccd6186ec999f65e11147a38
- Realised P&L
- $9.80
- Volume
- $176.07
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $4.57
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.967 | $1.32 | +$0.32 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.490 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.680 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $167.50 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.200 | $0.63 | −$0.38 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.055 | $0.15 | −$0.85 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.037 | $0.12 | −$0.88 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.055 | $0.10 | −$0.90 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? · No | 0.220 | 0.016 | $0.07 | −$0.93 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $194 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.020 | $0.03 | −$0.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$2.82at 0.268Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
- +$2.54at 0.288WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on September 9?
- +$2.00at 0.339Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$1.61at 0.389Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on September 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 21:58 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $167.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 07:46 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 23:44 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 14:40 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 06:27 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:27 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $194 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 13:54 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 5? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 23:10 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 15:26 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 05:46 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 16:33 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.6799996464 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:29 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 23:20 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 13:01 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $2.50 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 04:30 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 30? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |