user089
0x4ef3f1f4dcd804c5ed585d18f1c77700ae677bd0
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $184.7k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $390.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.320 | $337.34 | +$20.59 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.146 | 0.205 | $53.09 | +$15.27 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.222Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.407Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?
- +$894.55at 0.518Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
- +$580.00at 0.637Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$476.52at 0.539GPT-5.4 released by March 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 17:50 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $13.35 |
| 09-18 17:37 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $14.42 |
| 08-31 15:31 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.20 |
| 08-31 15:17 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | SELL | 0.3952323232 | $733.65 |
| 08-31 14:33 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.5793610224 | $181.34 |
| 08-28 22:52 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2892768681 | $62.37 |
| 08-28 22:38 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3102059732 | $75.30 |
| 08-28 22:36 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2710485797 | $76.05 |
| 08-28 22:35 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $22.32 |
| 08-28 22:35 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2390834097 | $15.65 |
| 08-28 22:32 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $92.00 |
| 08-28 22:31 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $44.00 |
| 08-07 04:50 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.134029625 | $277.42 |
| 07-23 12:14 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $653.20 |
| 07-22 19:45 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.3288690323 | $101.95 |