0x4ef1bdc7993f6123d26f65388dad503d43cc44f3
- Realised P&L
- $5.46
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $6.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.245 | $5.24 | +$0.96 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.065 | $0.72 | −$0.39 |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.155 | 0.658 | $0.66 | +$0.50 |
| Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.033 | $0.18 | −$1.16 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.11 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.214 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.87 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.44at 0.125Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?
- +$2.04at 0.130Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
- +$1.80at 0.152Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$1.79at 0.281Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
- +$1.30at 0.130US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 11:53 | OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.92 |
| 08-27 07:12 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.68 |
| 08-14 22:33 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $2.76 |
| 08-14 17:59 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.50 |
| 08-06 19:01 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 07-19 21:42 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.53 | $3.13 |
| 07-17 06:10 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.27 |
| 07-15 21:22 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.361 | $2.02 |
| 07-13 21:50 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 07-13 18:48 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.2 | $3.20 |
| 07-11 01:25 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.225 | $1.92 |
| 07-08 21:54 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.201 | $1.76 |
| 07-03 09:09 | Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.11 |
| 07-03 05:16 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.15 |
| 07-01 17:35 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.356 | $3.06 |