PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x4ef1bdc7993f6123d26f65388dad503d43cc44f3

Realised P&L
$5.46
Volume
$1.7k
Markets traded
47
Open portfolio
$6.80

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded47
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration42.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample41 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)41.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration77.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.2000.245$5.24+$0.96
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.1000.065$0.72$0.39
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? · Yes0.1550.658$0.66+$0.50
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.2400.033$0.18$1.16
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No0.0160.000$0.00$0.11
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.2140.000$0.00$1.87
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00$1.00
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · No0.0030.000$0.00$1.25

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-06 11:53OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?SELL0.14$0.92
08-27 07:12Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.12$0.68
08-14 22:33Fed rate hike in 2026?SELL0.52$2.76
08-14 17:59Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL0.06$0.50
08-06 19:01Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?SELL0.22$1.10
07-19 21:42Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.53$3.13
07-17 06:10Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.22$1.27
07-15 21:22Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.361$2.02
07-13 21:50Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?BUY0.4$2.00
07-13 18:48Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.2$3.20
07-11 01:25Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.225$1.92
07-08 21:54Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.201$1.76
07-03 09:09Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding?BUY0.18$1.11
07-03 05:16Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.06$1.15
07-01 17:35Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.356$3.06