janeju1029
0x4ee44376066a2d20336bf9a5126a11af85c218ef
- Realised P&L
- $-199.18
- Volume
- $238.1k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $49.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.979 | $34.5k | +$635.79 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.940 | 0.955 | $7.9k | +$123.58 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.982 | $6.0k | +$130.57 |
| Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 235.5 · Over | 0.510 | 0.475 | $465.69 | −$34.31 |
| Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 242.5 · Over | 0.500 | 0.445 | $445.00 | −$55.00 |
| Spread: 76ers (-2.5) · 76ers | 0.494 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Spread: Knicks (-4.5) · Knicks | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| 76ers vs. Heat: O/U 243.5 · Over | 0.484 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
| Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5) · New York Liberty | 0.485 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$204.02 |
| New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream · New York Liberty | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$281.99 |
| Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5 · Under | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$81.61 |
| 76ers vs. Heat: O/U 244.5 · Over | 0.456 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$481.00 |
| Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5 · Over | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.00 |
| Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5 · Over | 0.497 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$453.04 |
| 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 · Over | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$901.23at 0.412Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty
- +$717.96at 0.986Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
- +$714.11at 0.922Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
- +$532.90at 0.915Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$453.91at 0.978Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 08:10 | Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 235.5 | BUY | 0.5099999999 | $500.00 |
| 10-21 08:00 | Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 242.5 | BUY | 0.5 | $500.00 |
| 10-21 03:51 | Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5 | BUY | 0.5099999997 | $400.00 |
| 10-21 02:59 | Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5 | SELL | 0.48 | $480.00 |
| 10-21 02:00 | Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5 | BUY | 0.4969576254 | $950.00 |
| 10-21 01:59 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.95 | $950.00 |
| 10-21 00:39 | Spread: Knicks (-5.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $275.00 |
| 10-21 00:38 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.95 | $190.00 |
| 10-20 22:58 | 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | BUY | 0.5 | $200.00 |
| 10-20 22:58 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.95 | $285.00 |
| 10-20 22:56 | Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5 | BUY | 0.4599999979 | $94.00 |
| 10-20 22:12 | Spread: Knicks (-4.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $400.00 |
| 10-20 22:10 | 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | BUY | 0.4999166806 | $300.00 |
| 10-20 22:01 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.95 | $760.00 |
| 10-17 01:46 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $94.00 |