0x4EB99439c916c08D5187866F187AB3B594b997F7-1774655796088
0x4eb99439c916c08d5187866f187ab3b594b997f7
- Realised P&L
- $57.04
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $85.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.955 | $81.28 | +$1.28 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.017 | $1.83 | +$0.83 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.046 | $1.59 | +$0.59 |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $0.38 | −$0.62 |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $0.17 | −$0.83 |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.001 | $0.13 | −$0.87 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.50 |
| Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 13? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.42at 0.172Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$32.07at 0.641Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 14?
- +$26.59at 0.642Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
- +$22.62at 0.650Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$13.24at 0.635Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 15:01 | Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | BUY | 0.9399999998 | $80.00 |
| 10-12 18:43 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.0289999997 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 18:03 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 17:45 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 17:45 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 17:44 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.0089999999 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 16:00 | Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? | BUY | 0.8606376096 | $73.54 |
| 09-29 15:21 | Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 2? | BUY | 0.8699999991 | $64.44 |
| 08-28 14:08 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28? | BUY | 0.9399999994 | $61.00 |
| 08-27 12:49 | Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28? | SELL | 0.8394452827 | $116.83 |
| 08-23 19:32 | Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28? | BUY | 0.6299999981 | $87.68 |
| 08-21 19:30 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21? | BUY | 0.9719999997 | $87.00 |
| 08-18 15:22 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 21? | BUY | 0.9299999997 | $81.00 |
| 08-13 22:45 | Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 14? | BUY | 0.6289999981 | $51.09 |
| 08-13 13:35 | Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 14? | SELL | 0.881 | $52.47 |