0x4e2DA75C1298DB07AFB8fc128622E8bDCcd01E94-1778712843572
0x4e2da75c1298db07afb8fc128622e8bdccd01e94
- Realised P&L
- $-15.5k
- Volume
- $64.3k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $222.57
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-24.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.070 | $89.89 | −$106.11 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.065 | $72.22 | −$27.78 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? · Yes | 0.181 | 0.097 | $53.44 | −$46.55 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.438 | 0.512 | $7.02 | +$1.02 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.421 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.2k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET · Up | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.716 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.325 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.2k |
| Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.45 |
| Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.285 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.782 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.507Will the third-place match be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$329.68at 0.482Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
- +$289.23at 0.479Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$0.75at 0.952Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 00:32 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.4379999634 | $6.00 |
| 07-19 21:50 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0733684873 | $482.88 |
| 07-18 23:28 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4099999997 | $450.00 |
| 07-17 19:17 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4059999999 | $1.7k |
| 07-17 00:54 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4159999993 | $300.00 |
| 07-17 00:53 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.416 | $6.0k |
| 07-16 14:13 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.1814967446 | $100.00 |
| 07-16 13:59 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.0899999988 | $66.54 |
| 07-16 13:59 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $33.46 |
| 07-16 13:57 | Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.1526366462 | $196.00 |
| 07-16 02:23 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4209999992 | $200.00 |
| 07-16 02:15 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4209999998 | $970.41 |
| 07-16 02:02 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4219999987 | $100.00 |
| 07-16 02:02 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4209999998 | $1000.00 |
| 07-15 21:55 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.42 | $4.5k |