PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

MAHMT

0x4e239f8a8306c75868460a57bf394483e23fd084

Realised P&L
$-4.22
Volume
$17.5k
Markets traded
49
Open portfolio
$70.56

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded49
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample40 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)32.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration42.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · Yes0.0800.075$30.00−$2.00
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0400.022$10.15−$7.85
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31? · Yes0.0450.035$7.85−$2.15
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · Yes0.1540.075$6.83−$7.17
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? · Yes0.0430.046$5.41+$0.41
US x China Military clash before 2027? · Yes0.0510.025$4.76−$5.24
Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? · Yes0.0450.011$4.33−$12.67
Will Somalia join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1000.025$1.23−$3.77

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-06 21:27Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?BUY0.1399999727$4.00
09-02 17:48Iran full airspace closure by September 30?BUY0.1$10.00
09-02 17:45Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?BUY0.0443437547$7.00
09-02 17:43Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0339999936$5.00
09-02 17:42Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.02$5.00
09-01 17:53Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?BUY0.0399500624$8.00
09-01 17:52Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?BUY0.0457711401$10.00
09-01 17:51Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?BUY0.08$32.00
09-01 17:51Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.025$10.00
09-01 17:47Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?SELL0.003$0.11
08-31 21:20Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?SELL0.8665778677$89.98
08-30 22:58Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?BUY0.4939999853$9.00
08-30 22:58US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?SELL0.402$9.13
08-30 22:50Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?BUY0.7379999306$2.00
08-30 22:48Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?BUY0.7489999789$30.00