MAHMT
0x4e239f8a8306c75868460a57bf394483e23fd084
- Realised P&L
- $-4.22
- Volume
- $17.5k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $70.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.075 | $30.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.022 | $10.15 | −$7.85 |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.035 | $7.85 | −$2.15 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.075 | $6.83 | −$7.17 |
| UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.046 | $5.41 | +$0.41 |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.025 | $4.76 | −$5.24 |
| Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.011 | $4.33 | −$12.67 |
| Will Somalia join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.025 | $1.23 | −$3.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.83at 0.120Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$45.99at 0.424Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?
- +$40.45at 0.110Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?
- +$34.34at 0.340Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
- +$27.37at 0.150Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 21:27 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999727 | $4.00 |
| 09-02 17:48 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 17:45 | Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? | BUY | 0.0443437547 | $7.00 |
| 09-02 17:43 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0339999936 | $5.00 |
| 09-02 17:42 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.02 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 17:53 | Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0399500624 | $8.00 |
| 09-01 17:52 | Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? | BUY | 0.0457711401 | $10.00 |
| 09-01 17:51 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $32.00 |
| 09-01 17:51 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |
| 09-01 17:47 | Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.11 |
| 08-31 21:20 | Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8665778677 | $89.98 |
| 08-30 22:58 | Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4939999853 | $9.00 |
| 08-30 22:58 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.402 | $9.13 |
| 08-30 22:50 | Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7379999306 | $2.00 |
| 08-30 22:48 | Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7489999789 | $30.00 |