PolyBot

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Traders

OmskBird

0x4e1fc4e94600580cf1446db2c168d8c5c038aa60

Realised P&L
$-3.9k
Volume
$116.7k
Markets traded
370
Open portfolio
$195.00

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded370
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration34.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2800.191$68.04−$31.96
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.3700.415$56.14+$6.14
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.6100.490$40.16−$9.84
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3700.016$30.23−$669.76
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? · Yes0.2800.120$0.43−$0.57
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00−$5.00
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 18? · No0.9000.000$0.00−$550.05
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? · Yes0.4950.000$0.00−$50.30
Will RFK end HPV vaccine recommendation in 2025? · Yes0.2200.000$0.00−$10.00
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00−$10.00
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00−$10.00
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025? · Yes0.4200.000$0.00−$40.00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Yes0.6710.000$0.00−$90.00
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? · Yes0.2200.000$0.00−$200.00
Will "The Odyssey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · No0.0320.000$0.00−$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-31 16:00Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3704438711$700.00
07-09 18:42Will "The Odyssey" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?BUY0.3555467749$100.00
07-09 18:41Will "The Odyssey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?BUY0.0319275627$10.00
07-09 18:41Will "The Odyssey" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?BUY0.0330000001$20.00
07-09 18:41Will "The Odyssey" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?BUY0.08$50.00
07-09 18:41Will "The Odyssey" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?BUY0.3403080258$100.00
07-09 18:39Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 11, 2026?BUY0.0847234104$5.00
07-09 18:38Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?BUY0.5688622711$50.00
07-09 18:38Will the announcers say "Hattrick" or "Hat Trick" during the France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?BUY0.6299999483$10.00
07-09 18:37Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?BUY0.29999997$5.00
07-09 18:37Will the announcers say "Corner" 15+ times during the France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?BUY0.1899999726$5.00
07-09 18:37Will the announcers say "Composure" during the France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?BUY0.8199999377$5.00
07-09 18:37Will the announcers say "Onside" during the France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?BUY0.8399999664$10.00
07-09 18:37Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?BUY0.4199999832$5.00
07-09 18:36Will the announcers say "Cleat" during the France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?BUY0.2$5.00