0x4Dea843907A531aF57c370baE5F4Ae48A1696cF9-1764424350266
0x4dea843907a531af57c370bae5f4ae48a1696cf9
- Realised P&L
- $-28.98
- Volume
- $54.2k
- Markets traded
- 414
- Open portfolio
- $2.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded414
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.004 | $2.00 | −$33.00 |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · No | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? · No | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.20 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.50 |
| Will Houthis target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026? · No | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? · No | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.60 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$74.24at 0.027US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
- +$67.20at 0.332Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$36.29at 0.167US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
- +$32.00at 0.600Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$31.00at 0.130Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 19:43 | Will Houthis target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.209999974 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 19:40 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.3399999857 | $10.00 |
| 09-05 19:39 | Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.004130487 | $14.66 |
| 08-01 13:13 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.044 | $13.20 |
| 07-24 08:33 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.51 | $10.20 |
| 07-23 21:03 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | BUY | 0.07 | $35.00 |
| 07-23 21:03 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | BUY | 0.008 | $8.00 |
| 07-23 20:57 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.33 | $6.60 |
| 07-23 20:44 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.46 | $9.20 |
| 07-23 20:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | BUY | 0.41 | $8.20 |
| 07-23 20:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.32 | $3.20 |
| 07-23 20:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.33 | $6.60 |
| 07-23 20:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | SELL | 0.39 | $7.80 |
| 07-23 20:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.31 | $15.50 |
| 07-23 20:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? | SELL | 0.15 | $15.00 |