0x4d9D49e7080CA5eB90331040218750C0DA0953E8-1770464605967
0x4d9d49e7080ca5eb90331040218750c0da0953e8
- Realised P&L
- $-3.59
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $29.45
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.885 | $29.45 | −$0.17 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.66 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.29 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.08 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.98 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.36 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7? · No | 0.960 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.21 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.59 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.29 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$91.41at 0.026US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
- +$21.99at 0.509Celtics vs. Cavaliers
- +$14.70at 0.530Celtics vs. Lakers
- +$11.45at 0.550Hornets vs. Hawks
- +$8.28at 0.570Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 09:35 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | BUY | 0.8899999967 | $29.62 |
| 09-28 08:26 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.963994809 | $22.29 |
| 09-17 10:22 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.9669999997 | $37.77 |
| 08-28 08:41 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.0259999899 | $2.44 |
| 08-12 08:56 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.0196841382 | $1.29 |
| 07-24 09:08 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31? | BUY | 0.9629999992 | $3.62 |
| 07-17 10:33 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24? | BUY | 0.7099999348 | $2.07 |
| 07-10 07:37 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14? | BUY | 0.9789999436 | $3.94 |
| 07-04 08:28 | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7? | BUY | 0.9599999383 | $11.21 |
| 06-27 11:42 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999712 | $4.08 |
| 06-21 11:19 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.05 | $6.59 |
| 06-12 07:29 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY | 0.22 | $19.36 |
| 06-03 10:07 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0877734325 | $14.98 |
| 05-27 10:12 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999799 | $33.85 |
| 05-18 08:08 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999947 | $11.66 |