yunlongnick
0x4d768c0863592d93ade9addfb2542dd7398964b9
- Realised P&L
- $-72.09
- Volume
- $2.8k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $318.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)29.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.980 | $248.20 | +$37.88 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.549 | 0.955 | $49.85 | +$21.19 |
| New pandemic before 2028? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.130 | $10.22 | −$4.72 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · No | 0.370 | 0.295 | $7.13 | −$1.81 |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? · Yes | 0.269 | 0.074 | $2.04 | −$5.35 |
| Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.026 | $1.48 | −$2.99 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.07at 0.505Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
- +$18.48at 0.554Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$10.92at 0.430Megaquake in 2025?
- +$10.84at 0.560Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
- +$10.26at 0.886Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 06:54 | Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | BUY | 0.08 | $4.47 |
| 09-24 17:15 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.3699999872 | $8.94 |
| 09-22 09:58 | New pandemic before 2028? | BUY | 0.1899999999 | $14.94 |
| 06-04 16:53 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? | BUY | 0.1499999729 | $4.43 |
| 06-04 16:47 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BUY | 0.2694270609 | $7.39 |
| 02-22 18:21 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | SELL | 0.271 | $4.13 |
| 01-14 04:49 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.5490421456 | $28.66 |
| 11-12 17:22 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | SELL | 0.93 | $45.77 |
| 10-10 16:07 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | BUY | 0.4599999777 | $7.01 |
| 10-06 13:22 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | BUY | 0.1399999611 | $2.81 |
| 09-25 16:43 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.8299999998 | $210.32 |
| 09-25 16:39 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | SELL | 0.93 | $219.71 |
| 08-07 17:40 | Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? | BUY | 0.5299999832 | $6.96 |
| 07-30 17:06 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9 | $69.67 |
| 07-30 08:10 | US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.39 |