bitcoinmafia
0x4d3e6f882536f5bde89d20a64e2198b1c1e8783b
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $2.84M
- Markets traded
- 1,220
- Open portfolio
- $22.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,220
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration30.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? · No | 0.521 | 0.905 | $11.0k | +$4.7k |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? · No | 0.301 | 0.865 | $5.7k | +$3.7k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.825 | $3.7k | +$967.49 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? · No | 0.428 | 0.935 | $767.91 | +$416.18 |
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.587 | 0.230 | $271.39 | −$421.19 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.462 | 0.228 | $270.65 | −$278.27 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.550 | 0.915 | $236.50 | +$94.34 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.290 | 0.835 | $56.95 | +$37.17 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? · No | 0.635 | 0.935 | $36.76 | +$11.78 |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.025 | $24.50 | −$435.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.3kat 0.348Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$19.9kat 0.413Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
- +$17.7kat 0.578Will Australia win?
- +$15.3kat 0.488Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
- +$10.0kat 0.448Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 15:34 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $783.65 |
| 09-01 15:33 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $791.44 |
| 08-17 22:06 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $208.00 |
| 08-17 20:18 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? | SELL | 0.1 | $68.32 |
| 08-17 17:26 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? | SELL | 0.26 | $14.31 |
| 08-17 17:26 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? | SELL | 0.26 | $82.38 |
| 08-17 15:14 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $623.19 |
| 08-17 15:12 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $19.78 |
| 08-17 10:26 | Will Sri Lanka win? | BUY | 0.049990099 | $100.98 |
| 08-17 10:25 | Test Match: Sri Lanka vs India - Match goes to Day 4? | BUY | 0.1 | $200.00 |
| 08-16 16:57 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $2.3k |
| 08-13 07:36 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? | BUY | 0.2992114 | $598.42 |
| 08-12 15:39 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $669.90 |
| 07-30 09:35 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.9k |
| 07-30 09:27 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $657.14 |