JamesBonder007
0x4d1466c694b26a71e426bd3295ebbb07727b2366
- Realised P&L
- $32.2k
- Volume
- $10.13M
- Markets traded
- 137
- Open portfolio
- $169.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded137
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.951 | 0.970 | $50.2k | +$942.45 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.973 | 0.980 | $30.8k | +$216.49 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.959 | 0.964 | $24.1k | +$124.27 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.975 | 0.979 | $17.7k | +$62.32 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.969 | 0.973 | $17.5k | +$55.84 |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? · Yes | 0.988 | 0.997 | $8.0k | +$65.01 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? · No | 0.964 | 0.978 | $7.8k | +$107.65 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.848 | 0.850 | $7.2k | +$15.03 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.987 | 0.990 | $4.9k | +$12.50 |
| Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31? · No | 0.990 | 0.992 | $486.79 | +$0.64 |
| Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.974 | $253.36 | +$6.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.974Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$2.5kat 0.995MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.977Netanyahu out by March 31?
- +$2.0kat 0.996US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$1.4kat 0.994Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 04:48 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | BUY | 0.9742992441 | $1.5k |
| 10-30 17:55 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.8k |
| 10-30 17:52 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | BUY | 0.968 | $635.98 |
| 10-30 17:52 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | BUY | 0.9597391466 | $5.2k |
| 10-19 19:08 | Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.9902037233 | $486.15 |
| 10-17 11:24 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9970029585 | $1.7k |
| 10-17 11:18 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.949 | $1.6k |
| 10-17 11:17 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.948 | $7.8k |
| 10-14 05:15 | Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week? | BUY | 0.997 | $936.99 |
| 09-25 18:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.992 | $9.92 |
| 09-25 18:20 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.9909115622 | $330.98 |
| 09-20 19:07 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $4.8k |
| 09-20 19:05 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $15.0k |
| 08-28 18:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $49.9k |
| 08-28 18:32 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $50.0k |