Vvv
0x4cd4c3690adc86de3b881ffbfb93a8c306335b25
- Realised P&L
- $-8.2k
- Volume
- $2.11M
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $133.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.9kat 0.542Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$2.1kat 0.723Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$1.9kat 0.813Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election?
- +$1.8kat 0.578Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election?
- +$1.2kat 0.745Trump and Biden debate before Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 19:14 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.88 | $3.5k |
| 08-09 19:14 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.93 | $37.6k |
| 08-09 17:51 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8879188425 | $20.0k |
| 08-09 16:57 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.88 | $20.0k |
| 08-09 16:51 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.7962519866 | $2.4k |
| 08-04 11:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $7.5k |
| 08-04 11:16 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.86 | $33.3k |
| 08-04 11:16 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | SELL | 0.98 | $2.8k |
| 08-04 11:14 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.94445001 | $4.7k |
| 08-04 11:13 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.961 | $6.1k |
| 06-25 19:15 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9234481466 | $598.64 |
| 06-25 19:15 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9276264925 | $4.4k |
| 06-25 19:14 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | SELL | 0.995 | $8.2k |
| 06-25 19:13 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | SELL | 0.9950240684 | $3.3k |
| 06-25 19:12 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? | SELL | 0.9955483515 | $2.4k |