marco-nyc-chef
0x4c9eb793d34097fad1ea6814d231dd156058b1ca
- Realised P&L
- $3.23
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $275.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the GA-11 House seat? · Yes | 0.959 | 0.960 | $64.82 | +$0.03 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · No | 0.939 | 0.949 | $64.64 | +$0.65 |
| US congress stock trading ban before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.960 | $57.57 | +$1.77 |
| Will FC Dallas win the 2026 MLS Cup? · No | 0.974 | 0.940 | $47.63 | −$1.75 |
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? · Yes | 0.973 | 0.957 | $41.30 | −$0.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.67at 0.969Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
- +$0.53at 0.975Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$0.50at 0.940Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
- +$0.26at 0.980Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?
- +$0.25at 0.984Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-30 13:55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | BUY | 0.992 | $50.00 |
| 04-08 08:04 | Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9749999953 | $20.62 |