Hartwallseltzer
0x4c5e764945d66476ba412f16b362808f941910f2
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $6.6k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $204.18
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-18.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration84.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.225 | 0.165 | $171.56 | −$62.25 |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.035 | $32.62 | −$67.38 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.159 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.31 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$835.38 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.82 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-02 05:05 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0132439434 | $10.82 |
| 04-02 05:02 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | BUY | 0.1057692299 | $100.00 |
| 03-25 10:21 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | BUY | 0.07 | $23.31 |
| 03-25 10:19 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1591712748 | $200.00 |
| 03-20 11:03 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.3699999998 | $835.38 |
| 03-02 19:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2248651567 | $233.81 |