dcog
0x4c5202a4d17f6e2b95c385b1a680e957b3ba0d84
- Realised P&L
- $45.51
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.99at 0.763Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
- +$21.00at 0.300Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?
- +$16.76at 0.760Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?
- +$15.60at 0.220Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
- +$10.52at 0.216Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 02:26 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.7397032258 | $114.65 |
| 11-02 02:26 | Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.2916440394 | $45.28 |
| 11-02 02:23 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $14.50 |
| 11-02 02:23 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election? | SELL | 0.73 | $36.50 |
| 11-01 04:06 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $13.00 |
| 11-01 04:06 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election? | BUY | 0.73 | $36.50 |
| 11-01 03:47 | Will the Republican Party win the PA-07 House seat? | SELL | 0.12 | $9.72 |
| 11-01 03:46 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-07 House election by 6% or more? | SELL | 0.967 | $67.69 |
| 11-01 03:46 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-07 House election by 0%-3%? | SELL | 0.92 | $74.52 |
| 10-31 13:42 | Will the Democratic Party win the MI-09 House seat? | BUY | 0.978 | $92.91 |
| 10-31 13:42 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-09 House election? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.52 |
| 10-31 10:42 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $10.75 |
| 10-31 10:42 | Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $13.25 |
| 10-31 08:59 | Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat? | SELL | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 10-31 08:58 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-03 House election by 3%-6%? | SELL | 0.943 | $9.43 |