0x4c2123f34316290d1820f29bd5d268c22f7c5ac8
- Realised P&L
- $0.81
- Volume
- $38.24
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $13.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.991 | $3.29 | +$1.20 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 1.000 | $3.12 | +$1.03 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $162 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.775 | $2.08 | −$0.01 |
| Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.635 | $1.90 | −$0.19 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.190 | $1.73 | −$0.36 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.730 | 0.395 | $1.13 | −$0.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
- +$-0.04at 0.510Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 09:49 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $162 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999701 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 21:14 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.2299999285 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 01:25 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.7299999895 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 16:59 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.6299999488 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 16:01 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 01:06 | Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6999999665 | $2.09 |
| 07-31 17:05 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 17:03 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999264 | $2.08 |
| 07-31 09:01 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-30 13:17 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |