0x4bD8d58a18CeEa9F82bc512505554711f2Ea5c53-1719957425788
0x4bd8d58a18ceea9f82bc512505554711f2ea5c53
- Realised P&L
- $170.74
- Volume
- $601.7k
- Markets traded
- 450
- Open portfolio
- $18.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded450
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.895Ethereum all time high by June 30?
- +$1.8kat 0.595Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?
- +$1.4kat 0.200Knicks vs. Kings
- +$1.0kat 0.840Starmer out in 2025?
- +$876.35at 0.873Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 23:24 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $1.2k |
| 10-21 23:23 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.73 | $219.00 |
| 10-04 21:14 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0805642857 | $56.39 |
| 09-30 22:46 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.38 | $212.80 |
| 09-21 12:38 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $205.00 |
| 09-21 12:37 | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $368.00 |
| 09-21 12:35 | Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $475.00 |
| 09-18 13:49 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $730.00 |
| 09-18 13:41 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $190.00 |
| 09-18 13:38 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $420.00 |
| 09-14 14:34 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $415.00 |
| 09-14 14:31 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.952 | $277.15 |
| 09-14 10:24 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.01 | $21.00 |
| 09-13 09:00 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $252.30 |
| 09-13 08:57 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $460.00 |