PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

TheManInTheSky

0x4bc26247abd4c4f908c786c4873acd49beb2597a

Realised P&L
$-3.2k
Volume
$5.27M
Markets traded
464
Open portfolio
$2.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded464
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes0.1040.065$496.47$302.10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? · Yes0.2770.270$382.70$9.81
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? · Yes0.5950.555$270.09$19.39
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1700.085$248.34$248.09
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? · Yes0.2680.150$216.70$170.46
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5300.485$182.85$16.96
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0710.055$173.04$51.57
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.0740.055$130.59$44.48
Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes0.0530.052$105.52$1.52
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes0.2020.235$101.58+$14.07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? · Yes0.1250.086$24.10$10.89

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-15 12:11US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?SELL0.0240826114$16.29
09-15 12:10US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?SELL0.0300520434$98.15
09-14 18:50US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?SELL0.966$0.26
09-14 18:48US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?SELL0.05$0.02
09-14 13:00US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?BUY0.06$62.17
09-12 23:03US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?SELL0.12$0.21
09-12 15:10Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?SELL0.22$2.20
09-12 15:10Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?SELL0.2200124369$123.83
09-12 15:07US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?BUY0.92$7.58
09-12 15:07US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?SELL0.1$21.70
09-11 15:29US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?BUY0.14$57.95
09-11 11:22Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?SELL0.33$22.77
09-10 23:48Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?SELL0.2$11.93
09-10 20:18US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?BUY0.41$41.00
09-10 11:46US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?SELL0.23$51.33