TheManInTheSky
0x4bc26247abd4c4f908c786c4873acd49beb2597a
- Realised P&L
- $-3.2k
- Volume
- $5.27M
- Markets traded
- 464
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded464
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.104 | 0.065 | $496.47 | −$302.10 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? · Yes | 0.277 | 0.270 | $382.70 | −$9.81 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? · Yes | 0.595 | 0.555 | $270.09 | −$19.39 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.085 | $248.34 | −$248.09 |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? · Yes | 0.268 | 0.150 | $216.70 | −$170.46 |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.485 | $182.85 | −$16.96 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.055 | $173.04 | −$51.57 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.055 | $130.59 | −$44.48 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.052 | $105.52 | −$1.52 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes | 0.202 | 0.235 | $101.58 | +$14.07 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? · Yes | 0.125 | 0.086 | $24.10 | −$10.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.8kat 0.035Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?
- +$5.5kat 0.384Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
- +$4.9kat 0.500Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?
- +$4.6kat 0.880Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
- +$2.7kat 0.441Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 12:11 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | SELL | 0.0240826114 | $16.29 |
| 09-15 12:10 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | SELL | 0.0300520434 | $98.15 |
| 09-14 18:50 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30? | SELL | 0.966 | $0.26 |
| 09-14 18:48 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.02 |
| 09-14 13:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | BUY | 0.06 | $62.17 |
| 09-12 23:03 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.21 |
| 09-12 15:10 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.22 | $2.20 |
| 09-12 15:10 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.2200124369 | $123.83 |
| 09-12 15:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $7.58 |
| 09-12 15:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | SELL | 0.1 | $21.70 |
| 09-11 15:29 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | BUY | 0.14 | $57.95 |
| 09-11 11:22 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.33 | $22.77 |
| 09-10 23:48 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $11.93 |
| 09-10 20:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.41 | $41.00 |
| 09-10 11:46 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30? | SELL | 0.23 | $51.33 |