renglish
0x4bbf63e2aa8686841489ff74602b315c96f012aa
- Realised P&L
- $-139.00
- Volume
- $13.5k
- Markets traded
- 612
- Open portfolio
- $371.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded612
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.57at 0.070Will all remaining Trump cabinet picks be confirmed?
- +$24.48at 0.676Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$15.71at 0.560Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$13.96at 0.240Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by next Friday?
- +$8.47at 0.167US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 21:19 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-33 House seat? | SELL | 0.94 | $1.00 |
| 08-25 21:18 | Will the Republicans win the Idaho governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.946 | $0.99 |
| 08-25 21:18 | Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto | SELL | 0.951 | $1.01 |
| 08-25 21:18 | Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.953 | $1.01 |
| 08-25 21:18 | Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $1.02 |
| 08-25 21:18 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-44 House seat? | SELL | 0.984 | $1.04 |
| 08-25 21:18 | Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | SELL | 0.91 | $3.07 |
| 08-25 21:18 | Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $3.99 |
| 07-31 18:37 | Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $0.99 |
| 07-31 18:36 | Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $2.06 |
| 07-31 18:36 | Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.96 | $3.16 |
| 07-27 18:01 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.121 | $100.00 |
| 07-27 18:01 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0239999998 | $100.00 |
| 07-27 17:59 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999965 | $50.00 |
| 07-27 17:55 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1299999979 | $50.00 |