PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Vanquish

0x4baf4239188fb0b708e4d16872986e1fa9af5fdf

Realised P&L
$-819.71
Volume
$1.42M
Markets traded
289
Open portfolio
$33.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded289
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration52.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.9440.945$17.4k+$13.51
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes0.8200.993$8.9k+$1.5k
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · No0.9200.997$5.7k+$443.48
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes0.8820.055$1.0k−$15.1k
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.8500.927$4.64+$0.39

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 17:39Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.95$12.6k
10-16 10:00US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?BUY0.82$7.3k
10-08 22:21US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?BUY0.94$6.9k
10-08 10:12US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?SELL0.69$1.5k
10-02 13:59Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?BUY0.85$4.25
10-02 05:30Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?BUY0.91$5.0k
10-01 20:52Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?BUY0.9$356.12
10-01 20:50Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?BUY0.9$1.3k
10-01 14:28US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?BUY0.6$1.5k
09-29 15:21Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?BUY0.53$2.65
09-28 21:52Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?BUY0.9755356564$5.7k
09-28 21:45US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?BUY0.968887807$3.4k
09-28 21:41Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.93$4.7k
09-28 21:39Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?BUY0.987$39.48
09-28 21:38Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?BUY0.92$5.3k