Vanquish
0x4baf4239188fb0b708e4d16872986e1fa9af5fdf
- Realised P&L
- $-819.71
- Volume
- $1.42M
- Markets traded
- 289
- Open portfolio
- $33.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded289
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.944 | 0.945 | $17.4k | +$13.51 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.993 | $8.9k | +$1.5k |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · No | 0.920 | 0.997 | $5.7k | +$443.48 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes | 0.882 | 0.055 | $1.0k | −$15.1k |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.927 | $4.64 | +$0.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.2kat 0.914Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
- +$3.1kat 0.377Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?
- +$2.8kat 0.856Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?
- +$2.5kat 0.920Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$1.5kat 0.856Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:39 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $12.6k |
| 10-16 10:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.82 | $7.3k |
| 10-08 22:21 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? | BUY | 0.94 | $6.9k |
| 10-08 10:12 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.69 | $1.5k |
| 10-02 13:59 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 10-02 05:30 | Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.0k |
| 10-01 20:52 | Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $356.12 |
| 10-01 20:50 | Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.3k |
| 10-01 14:28 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.5k |
| 09-29 15:21 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $2.65 |
| 09-28 21:52 | Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30? | BUY | 0.9755356564 | $5.7k |
| 09-28 21:45 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.968887807 | $3.4k |
| 09-28 21:41 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.7k |
| 09-28 21:39 | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.987 | $39.48 |
| 09-28 21:38 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $5.3k |