Vanquish
0x4baf4239188fb0b708e4d16872986e1fa9af5fdf
- Realised P&L
- $-14.9k
- Volume
- $1.34M
- Markets traded
- 279
- Open portfolio
- $30.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded279
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September? · No | 0.930 | 0.982 | $11.1k | +$585.87 |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? · No | 0.970 | 0.967 | $5.8k | −$17.85 |
| Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.941 | 0.974 | $3.8k | +$126.33 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes | 0.882 | 0.195 | $3.6k | −$12.6k |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.975 | 0.971 | $2.9k | −$13.63 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.957 | 0.967 | $1.4k | +$14.02 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? · No | 0.972 | 0.977 | $858.96 | +$4.66 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? · Yes | 0.901 | 0.913 | $783.21 | +$10.28 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30? · No | 0.954 | 0.978 | $20.54 | +$0.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.2kat 0.914Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
- +$3.1kat 0.377Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?
- +$2.8kat 0.856Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?
- +$2.5kat 0.920Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$1.5kat 0.856Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 20:49 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? | BUY | 0.97 | $921.50 |
| 09-15 20:49 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.9497093822 | $830.05 |
| 09-15 20:47 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.8k |
| 09-15 20:46 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? | BUY | 0.8996666667 | $134.95 |
| 09-14 08:00 | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.953458704 | $1.6k |
| 09-10 14:41 | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $799.49 |
| 09-09 21:32 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $3.0k |
| 09-09 21:29 | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $68.82 |
| 09-09 21:28 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.9689403935 | $548.14 |
| 09-09 21:25 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? | BUY | 0.8993824648 | $447.15 |
| 09-09 21:25 | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $515.20 |
| 09-07 15:39 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? | BUY | 0.93 | $38.13 |
| 09-07 15:38 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | BUY | 0.976 | $244.00 |
| 09-07 15:36 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30? | BUY | 0.954 | $20.03 |
| 09-02 17:04 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September? | BUY | 0.93 | $2.4k |