PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Vanquish

0x4baf4239188fb0b708e4d16872986e1fa9af5fdf

Realised P&L
$-14.9k
Volume
$1.34M
Markets traded
279
Open portfolio
$30.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded279
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration29.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September? · No0.9300.982$11.1k+$585.87
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? · No0.9700.967$5.8k$17.85
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026? · No0.9410.974$3.8k+$126.33
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes0.8820.195$3.6k$12.6k
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? · No0.9750.971$2.9k$13.63
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No0.9570.967$1.4k+$14.02
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? · No0.9720.977$858.96+$4.66
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? · Yes0.9010.913$783.21+$10.28
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30? · No0.9540.978$20.54+$0.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-15 20:49Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?BUY0.97$921.50
09-15 20:49Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?BUY0.9497093822$830.05
09-15 20:47Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?BUY0.97$4.8k
09-15 20:46Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?BUY0.8996666667$134.95
09-14 08:00Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?BUY0.953458704$1.6k
09-10 14:41Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?BUY0.94$799.49
09-09 21:32US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?BUY0.975$3.0k
09-09 21:29Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?BUY0.93$68.82
09-09 21:28Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?BUY0.9689403935$548.14
09-09 21:25Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?BUY0.8993824648$447.15
09-09 21:25Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?BUY0.92$515.20
09-07 15:39Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?BUY0.93$38.13
09-07 15:38Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?BUY0.976$244.00
09-07 15:36Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?BUY0.954$20.03
09-02 17:04Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?BUY0.93$2.4k