0x4bad7c0e90423af6056ef55cfd5495e56cc70ae8
- Realised P&L
- $5.96
- Volume
- $151.84
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $10.26
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.260 | 0.735 | $2.83 | +$1.83 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.400 | 0.890 | $2.23 | +$1.23 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $181 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.865 | $1.42 | +$0.42 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $517.50 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.930 | $1.26 | +$0.26 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.805 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.240 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.155 | $0.48 | −$0.52 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.100 | $0.28 | −$0.72 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.110 | $0.17 | −$0.83 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.002 | $0.01 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.40at 0.300Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?
- +$1.83at 0.359Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during September Press Conference?
- +$1.75at 0.369SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 14?
- +$1.68at 0.379S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 20?
- +$1.68at 0.379Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 23:13 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $181 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 03:29 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 19:28 | Will Trump say "Make America Healthy Again" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 11:17 | Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 03:17 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 19:16 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 08:11 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 15? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 22:08 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 14:04 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $517.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 14:02 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 14:02 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 05:59 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 21:58 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 15:20 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 06:13 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $171 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |