gandalffromtheearth
0x4b29716c1dac4af0001308a9e18fcd015166f679
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $1.10M
- Markets traded
- 320
- Open portfolio
- $195.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded320
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $49.98 | +$0.03 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.991 | 0.998 | $49.88 | +$0.33 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.966 | 0.989 | $49.42 | +$1.13 |
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.994 | 1.000 | $24.99 | +$0.14 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $7.98 | −$0.01 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.236 | 0.183 | $7.34 | −$2.12 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.123 | $2.47 | −$0.93 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.082 | 0.100 | $1.49 | +$0.26 |
| ByteDance IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.029 | $1.48 | −$0.53 |
| Brex IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.010 | $0.50 | −$3.90 |
| US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$200.00at 0.990Rockets vs. Warriors
- +$90.00at 0.990Spread: Hornets (-4.5)
- +$45.74at 0.998Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
- +$42.00at 0.999Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs FaZe (BO3)
- +$34.22at 0.999Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 11:48 | Will Solana reach $200 in October? | BUY | 0.997 | $364.90 |
| 07-27 05:17 | Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.991 | $198.20 |
| 07-27 05:17 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.98 |
| 07-27 05:16 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $123.88 |
| 06-25 08:39 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.98 |
| 06-25 08:38 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $76.85 |
| 06-14 08:40 | Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.994 | $24.85 |
| 06-14 08:40 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $7.94 |
| 06-14 08:39 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $32.93 |
| 06-04 11:15 | Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? | BUY | 0.996 | $147.41 |
| 06-04 11:14 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | BUY | 0.996 | $298.80 |
| 05-18 06:38 | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.99 |
| 05-18 06:38 | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 05-18 06:38 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $8.50 |
| 05-14 15:13 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $155.84 |