PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

gandalffromtheearth

0x4b29716c1dac4af0001308a9e18fcd015166f679

Realised P&L
$1.2k
Volume
$1.10M
Markets traded
320
Open portfolio
$195.52

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded320
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%? · No0.9991.000$49.98+$0.03
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9910.998$49.88+$0.33
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9660.989$49.42+$1.13
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.9941.000$24.99+$0.14
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher? · No0.9990.998$7.98−$0.01
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2360.183$7.34−$2.12
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1700.123$2.47−$0.93
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0820.100$1.49+$0.26
ByteDance IPO before 2027? · Yes0.0400.029$1.48−$0.53
Brex IPO before 2027? · Yes0.0880.010$0.50−$3.90
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? · Yes0.0070.000$0.00−$0.17

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-19 11:48Will Solana reach $200 in October?BUY0.997$364.90
07-27 05:17Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.991$198.20
07-27 05:17Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?BUY0.999$14.98
07-27 05:16Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.999$123.88
06-25 08:39Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?BUY0.999$14.98
06-25 08:38Trump out as President by June 30?BUY0.998$76.85
06-14 08:40Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.994$24.85
06-14 08:40Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?BUY0.993$7.94
06-14 08:39Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?BUY0.998$32.93
06-04 11:15Will XRP reach $3.00 in June?BUY0.996$147.41
06-04 11:14Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?BUY0.996$298.80
05-18 06:38Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher?BUY0.999$7.99
05-18 06:38Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%?BUY0.999$49.95
05-18 06:38MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?BUY0.85$8.50
05-14 15:13Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?BUY0.999$155.84