ariete-avanti
0x4b13c84d627bfe80cc73548b25899e5b8d711e16
- Realised P&L
- $-37.01
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $239.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.941 | 0.988 | $52.34 | +$2.46 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.966 | $50.23 | +$0.83 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No | 0.940 | 0.945 | $50.09 | +$0.27 |
| Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? · No | 0.951 | 0.831 | $43.63 | −$6.30 |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? · Yes | 0.931 | 0.804 | $43.42 | −$6.86 |
| Trump kiss by May 31? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.44at 0.920Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
- +$2.73at 0.948Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026?
- +$2.17at 0.966Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?
- +$1.76at 0.966Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?
- +$1.62at 0.930Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-10 12:00 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.9649999999 | $50.00 |
| 04-10 10:53 | Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9299999668 | $21.54 |
| 04-07 08:01 | Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.9809999995 | $21.13 |