PolyBot

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Traders

v1ncent

0x4afc9e57bd843148018f229064e74f8ec080e11e

Realised P&L
$-759.16
Volume
$267.6k
Markets traded
5,965
Open portfolio
$81.01

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded5,965
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration20.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration47.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? · Yes0.6500.355$38.23$31.77
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · No0.8850.945$9.45+$0.60
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · No0.9001.000$5.00+$0.50
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No0.7911.000$5.00+$1.04
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · No0.8830.939$4.69+$0.28
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes0.9110.914$4.57+$0.02
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.6300.735$3.67+$0.53
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.1600.270$1.89+$0.77
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? · No0.5500.318$1.59$1.16
Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? · Yes0.1300.170$1.36+$0.32
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · No0.2600.265$1.32+$0.03
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.2120.225$1.12+$0.06
Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026? · Yes0.1600.155$1.08$0.03
Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? · Yes0.1700.175$1.05+$0.03
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · Yes0.1400.139$0.97$0.01

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 17:54Fed rate hike in 2026?SELL0.051$0.26
09-15 17:39Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.88$9.68
09-15 15:07Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?SELL0.68$3.40
09-15 15:07Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?SELL0.29$1.45
09-14 13:50Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?SELL0.65$3.25
09-14 13:50Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?SELL0.32$1.60
09-14 11:38Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?BUY0.14$0.98
09-14 11:36Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?SELL0.69$3.45
09-14 11:36Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?SELL0.29$1.45
09-14 11:04Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?SELL0.72$3.60
09-14 11:04Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?SELL0.27$1.35
09-14 09:13Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?BUY0.883$4.42
09-14 09:07Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026?BUY0.16$1.12
09-14 08:26Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?BUY0.87$4.35
09-14 02:21Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?SELL0.71$3.55