PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x4AF6470137b14B6430F415d2000E13e3582c3e2C-1773632617325

0x4af6470137b14b6430f415d2000e13e3582c3e2c

Realised P&L
$2.86
Volume
$74.48
Markets traded
12
Open portfolio
$8.71

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded12
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration60.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample4 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration26.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.4120.444$2.28+$0.16
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · No0.9740.978$1.79+$0.01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · No0.9541.000$1.31+$0.06
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.9680.967$1.26−$0.00
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes0.5300.435$1.07−$0.23
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? · Yes0.4700.295$0.75−$0.45
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3800.065$0.26−$1.24
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 9? · Yes0.6000.000$0.00−$1.30

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-26 06:50Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?BUY0.469999906$1.20
10-15 02:08Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.9679999201$1.26
10-08 06:42Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?BUY0.974$1.78
09-24 02:06Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.3399999477$1.30
09-18 06:49Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?BUY0.5299998247$1.30
07-09 02:15Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 9?BUY0.6$1.30
06-26 05:55Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.4119998912$2.12
06-12 05:46Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22?BUY0.5599999664$2.00
06-05 03:15Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3799998835$1.50
05-22 03:10Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY0.9539995925$1.25
05-09 06:55Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?BUY0.9829999969$1.25
03-30 06:29Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?BUY0.9599998618$5.00
03-25 06:49Trump out as President by March 31?BUY0.997$6.00
03-25 06:49Trump out as President by March 31?BUY0.997$6.00
03-18 02:24Trump out as President by March 31?BUY0.9909999494$5.27