0x4AF6470137b14B6430F415d2000E13e3582c3e2C-1773632617325
0x4af6470137b14b6430f415d2000e13e3582c3e2c
- Realised P&L
- $2.86
- Volume
- $74.48
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $8.71
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.412 | 0.444 | $2.28 | +$0.16 |
| Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · No | 0.974 | 0.978 | $1.79 | +$0.01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · No | 0.954 | 1.000 | $1.31 | +$0.06 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.968 | 0.967 | $1.26 | −$0.00 |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.435 | $1.07 | −$0.23 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.295 | $0.75 | −$0.45 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.065 | $0.26 | −$1.24 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 9? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.48at 0.351Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$1.54at 0.570Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22?
- +$0.07at 0.995Trump out as President by March 31?
- +$0.04at 0.983Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 06:50 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.20 |
| 10-15 02:08 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.9679999201 | $1.26 |
| 10-08 06:42 | Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.974 | $1.78 |
| 09-24 02:06 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3399999477 | $1.30 |
| 09-18 06:49 | Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.5299998247 | $1.30 |
| 07-09 02:15 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 9? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.30 |
| 06-26 05:55 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4119998912 | $2.12 |
| 06-12 05:46 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 06-05 03:15 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799998835 | $1.50 |
| 05-22 03:10 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.9539995925 | $1.25 |
| 05-09 06:55 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9829999969 | $1.25 |
| 03-30 06:29 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9599998618 | $5.00 |
| 03-25 06:49 | Trump out as President by March 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $6.00 |
| 03-25 06:49 | Trump out as President by March 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $6.00 |
| 03-18 02:24 | Trump out as President by March 31? | BUY | 0.9909999494 | $5.27 |