Magician5342
0x4ae4c0bf86314dd182a32dfabddd7424068bf84a
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $255.2k
- Markets traded
- 464
- Open portfolio
- $62.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded464
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$900.49at 0.933Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
- +$702.04at 0.891Will Jeromie Whalen be the MA-01 Democratic nominee?
- +$609.97at 0.878Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
- +$498.31at 0.895Will Richard Neal be the MA-01 Democratic nominee?
- +$411.89at 0.890Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 06:50 | Will the Democratic Party win the OH-09 House seat? | BUY | 0.81 | $8.10 |
| 10-30 13:44 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Attorney General election? | BUY | 0.79 | $31.76 |
| 10-30 13:43 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Attorney General election? | BUY | 0.79 | $111.92 |
| 10-30 13:43 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Attorney General election? | BUY | 0.78 | $65.51 |
| 10-30 13:24 | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $12.60 |
| 10-30 13:24 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Attorney General election? | SELL | 0.38 | $11.40 |
| 10-30 13:23 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $38.88 |
| 10-30 13:23 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $13.80 |
| 10-29 14:43 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.614 | $30.70 |
| 10-29 14:41 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.614 | $30.70 |
| 10-29 14:40 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.614 | $9.20 |
| 10-29 14:40 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.614 | $61.40 |
| 10-29 14:39 | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $548.68 |
| 10-29 14:33 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.614 | $30.70 |
| 10-29 14:32 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.614 | $18.41 |