Magician5342
0x4ae4c0bf86314dd182a32dfabddd7424068bf84a
- Realised P&L
- $174.15
- Volume
- $7.2k
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.96at 0.834Will Greg Stanton be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?
- +$24.05at 0.929Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?
- +$21.40at 0.909Will Kai Newkirk be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?
- +$2.10at 0.820Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
- +$0.45at 0.900Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 07:20 | Will Aisha Farooqi be the Democratic nominee for MI-11? | BUY | 0.917 | $6.42 |
| 08-01 15:59 | Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11? | BUY | 0.917 | $70.61 |
| 08-01 15:33 | Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03? | BUY | 0.973 | $39.63 |
| 08-01 15:21 | Will Catherine Hildebrand advance to the general election for WA-01? | BUY | 0.968 | $19.46 |
| 08-01 15:21 | Will Catherine Hildebrand advance to the general election for WA-01? | BUY | 0.967 | $29.31 |
| 08-01 07:03 | Will Elpidia Saavedra advance to the general election for WA-04? | BUY | 0.943 | $5.59 |
| 08-01 07:02 | Will Elpidia Saavedra advance to the general election for WA-04? | BUY | 0.942 | $17.38 |
| 08-01 07:02 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $26.70 |
| 07-31 14:10 | Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03? | BUY | 0.964 | $6.74 |
| 07-31 13:01 | Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03? | BUY | 0.964 | $144.86 |
| 07-31 13:01 | Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $13.95 |
| 07-31 12:52 | Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03? | BUY | 0.963 | $13.69 |
| 07-31 12:51 | Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.902 | $144.04 |
| 07-31 12:47 | Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03? | BUY | 0.962 | $38.48 |
| 07-31 12:47 | Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03? | BUY | 0.962 | $38.48 |