0x4Ab574964c80119FfE82Dec0c2C81BC698bc4D9E-1763233692645
0x4ab574964c80119ffe82dec0c2c81bc698bc4d9e
- Realised P&L
- $-84.27
- Volume
- $5.6k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $19.64
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.025 | $9.67 | −$10.33 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.835 | $8.35 | +$3.35 |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.006 | $1.63 | −$0.38 |
| Starmer out by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Peter Mandelson charged by March 31? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.55at 0.700Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$1.01at 0.323Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?
- +$0.92at 0.520Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21?
- +$0.80at 0.100Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?
- +$0.47at 0.200Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-20 18:20 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | SELL | 0.014 | $10.41 |
| 03-14 11:52 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.0739999974 | $25.00 |
| 03-14 11:50 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.0739999932 | $10.00 |
| 03-14 11:50 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.0739999932 | $10.00 |
| 03-14 11:49 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.0739999932 | $10.00 |
| 03-02 09:10 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.219 | $5.47 |
| 03-02 09:10 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? | SELL | 0.116 | $5.80 |
| 03-02 09:10 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? | SELL | 0.0648387097 | $6.55 |
| 03-01 14:59 | Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0559999949 | $10.00 |
| 03-01 14:56 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $65.49 |
| 02-28 18:51 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $45.94 |
| 02-28 07:54 | Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.038 | $0.66 |
| 02-28 07:53 | Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.0066103983 | $6.43 |
| 02-25 14:37 | Will Bill or Hillary publicly testify before congress by Feb 28? | SELL | 0.0216038907 | $4.18 |
| 02-25 14:36 | Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28? | SELL | 0.011 | $2.30 |