ainbone
0x4a74304b126ea8f5c2a12e11893f8a3be093d7f5
- Realised P&L
- $177.20
- Volume
- $22.4k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $375.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.980 | 0.995 | $130.96 | +$1.96 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No | 0.971 | 0.997 | $119.58 | +$3.06 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $75.55 | −$0.27 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? · No | 0.998 | 0.996 | $49.88 | −$0.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.22at 0.860Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?
- +$24.03at 0.893Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April?
- +$12.38at 0.942Will Ethena dip to $0.08 in May?
- +$12.00at 0.985Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- +$9.24at 0.972Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 12:38 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? | BUY | 0.997793656 | $50.00 |
| 09-20 12:38 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? | BUY | 0.999 | $75.81 |
| 09-20 12:37 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.9795838666 | $129.00 |
| 09-14 07:52 | Will CZ post 180-199 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $192.73 |
| 09-14 07:52 | Will CZ post 200+ posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $36.89 |
| 09-07 06:51 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 7 – Sep 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $152.85 |
| 09-07 06:50 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 7 – Sep 11? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 09-01 10:56 | Will Solana dip to $40 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.9973822175 | $268.00 |
| 08-24 09:20 | Trump out as President by August 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $258.22 |
| 08-22 06:16 | Will XRP dip to $0.60 August 17-23? | BUY | 0.999 | $150.85 |
| 08-21 07:20 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$8.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Aug 17 – Aug 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $150.85 |
| 08-18 07:37 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on August 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $143.86 |
| 08-18 07:37 | Will XRP dip to $0.40 August 17-23? | BUY | 0.9981244506 | $114.00 |
| 08-09 02:10 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 10 above $1.00? | BUY | 0.999 | $268.73 |
| 08-02 15:47 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $250.75 |