0x4a5fe9fc9d44603f8e2895628b6ce30d52a04741
0x4a5fe9fc9d44603f8e2895628b6ce30d52a04741
- Realised P&L
- $3.62
- Volume
- $31.73
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $5.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $115 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.420 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? · No | 0.790 | 0.870 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.825 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 5+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? · No | 0.210 | 0.135 | $0.64 | −$0.36 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.390 | $0.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.285 | $0.41 | −$0.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.67at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$0.83at 0.552Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$0.83at 0.552Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
- +$0.76at 0.572Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$0.32at 0.759Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 04:05 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 20:02 | Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 5+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 11:26 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $115 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 15:02 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 06:14 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 20:43 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 18:31 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 20:52 | Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 12:47 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 11:44 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on September 17? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 03:19 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 00:01 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 23:27 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 15:21 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |