0x49F8ABF43e6b887d14c3Df54A111edC529332043-1782114626937
0x49f8abf43e6b887d14c3df54a111edc529332043
- Realised P&L
- $7.44
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $22.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration33.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026 · Yes | 0.920 | 0.405 | $22.01 | −$27.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.28at 0.735Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
- +$4.29at 0.917Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$4.15at 0.924Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$3.59at 0.933Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$3.53at 0.934Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 04:55 | Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026 | BUY | 0.92 | $50.00 |
| 09-17 11:30 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.9346822071 | $50.00 |
| 09-14 06:52 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $50.00 |
| 09-11 20:41 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $54.51 |
| 09-09 09:40 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.9135322705 | $50.00 |
| 09-08 07:50 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.7249999985 | $50.00 |
| 09-04 15:49 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.9562357755 | $50.00 |
| 09-03 04:13 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.947810437 | $50.00 |
| 08-31 12:39 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999996 | $50.00 |
| 08-21 09:01 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.956 | $10.00 |
| 08-21 09:01 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.956 | $10.00 |
| 08-17 13:28 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9309999998 | $50.00 |
| 08-12 16:47 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999989 | $25.00 |
| 08-12 08:47 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $29.67 |
| 08-10 06:36 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999993 | $50.00 |