PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x49C4a535912CFec7e90b33672771a7d6BA98dB5B-1775560756137

0x49c4a535912cfec7e90b33672771a7d6ba98db5b

Realised P&L
$-7.3k
Volume
$624.9k
Markets traded
9,636
Open portfolio
$238.80

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded9,636
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
BlockerProfit concentration65.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration13.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9710.971$33.27$0.03
Iran full airspace closure by September 30? · No0.8800.972$22.08+$2.08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.3400.325$17.20$0.79
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · Yes0.3200.270$14.84$2.73
Kash Patel out by December 31? · Yes0.2640.210$14.54$3.71
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · No0.9200.915$13.95$0.08
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? · Yes0.1100.075$13.64$6.36
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.1470.145$11.12$0.13
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0270.028$11.00+$0.20
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · Yes0.1000.065$10.10$5.44
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? · No0.8500.865$6.93+$0.12
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? · Yes0.3820.190$5.44$5.49
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.9650.974$4.94+$0.04
Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.4200.245$4.90$3.50
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? · No0.9500.960$4.85+$0.05

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-23 09:19Iran leadership change by November 30?SELL0.06$3.42
09-22 22:53Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?BUY0.0604856099$1.00
09-22 17:27Iran leadership change by November 30?BUY0.08$1.00
09-22 15:20Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 5%-10%?BUY0.08$1.00
09-22 13:39US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?SELL0.48$2.83
09-21 19:19Iran leadership change by October 31?SELL0.04$1.32
09-19 21:35Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?SELL0.05$0.04
09-19 06:49Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?SELL0.05$0.21
09-19 06:49Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0599999988$1.00
09-18 17:36Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?SELL0.043$1.07
09-18 00:47Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2028?SELL0.02$0.10
09-15 06:12US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.3399999966$20.00
09-14 01:13US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?SELL0.05$0.00
09-13 17:03Iran leadership change by December 31?BUY0.1499999925$1.00
09-13 17:03Iran leadership change by December 31?BUY0.1499999925$1.00