xyz9999
0x49b306b0c083ebf5230dce5b151ecfaf63f06486
- Realised P&L
- $-99.5k
- Volume
- $2.80M
- Markets traded
- 89
- Open portfolio
- $37.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded89
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.342 | 0.415 | $35.0k | +$6.1k |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · Yes | 0.116 | 0.085 | $2.8k | −$1.0k |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other · Yes | 0.007 | 0.005 | $92.69 | −$34.95 |
| Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev · Flavio Cobolli | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.846 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.5k |
| Will Putin visit China by May 31? · No | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$475.00 |
| Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? · Yes | 0.199 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.4kat 0.806US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$22.2kat 0.772Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- +$21.2kat 0.475Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$8.8kat 0.786Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?
- +$8.0kat 0.845Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 18:29 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $3.05 |
| 07-19 10:21 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $0.80 |
| 07-15 12:30 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $4.46 |
| 07-13 14:21 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $6.10 |
| 07-03 11:14 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $2.98 |
| 07-02 10:40 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $5.83 |
| 06-30 09:08 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.84 |
| 06-29 13:59 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $5.65 |
| 06-27 10:03 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.77 |
| 06-26 11:41 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $2.75 |
| 06-24 13:13 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $2.75 |
| 06-23 12:23 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $2.75 |
| 06-22 12:26 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $3.70 |
| 06-21 11:50 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.80 |
| 06-20 14:13 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $8.17 |