xyz9999
0x49b306b0c083ebf5230dce5b151ecfaf63f06486
- Realised P&L
- $-104.9k
- Volume
- $2.92M
- Markets traded
- 89
- Open portfolio
- $659.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded89
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · Yes | 0.116 | 0.055 | $592.97 | −$656.38 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other · Yes | 0.006 | 0.003 | $66.11 | −$95.99 |
| Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev · Flavio Cobolli | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.846 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.5k |
| Will Putin visit China by May 31? · No | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$475.00 |
| Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? · Yes | 0.199 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.4kat 0.806US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$22.2kat 0.772Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- +$21.2kat 0.475Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$8.8kat 0.786Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?
- +$8.0kat 0.845Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 13:30 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $799.59 |
| 09-08 12:19 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.35 | $2.8k |
| 09-04 09:17 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $667.31 |
| 08-28 23:31 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.35 | $3.6k |
| 08-28 16:43 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.35 | $3.5k |
| 08-28 16:42 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.36 | $1.1k |
| 08-28 09:28 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.36 | $869.40 |
| 08-27 17:02 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.35 | $736.75 |
| 08-27 16:55 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.35 | $340.90 |
| 08-27 16:27 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.36 | $3.2k |
| 08-27 16:26 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.37 | $296.00 |
| 08-27 16:26 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.37 | $296.00 |
| 08-27 16:26 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.37 | $296.00 |
| 08-27 16:25 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.37 | $296.00 |
| 08-27 16:25 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.37 | $296.00 |