Gemini456
0x49ae18c82dab9fd3a2bb84d0a96c3ded503ff3ba
- Realised P&L
- $15.6k
- Volume
- $2.06M
- Markets traded
- 425
- Open portfolio
- $452.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded425
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · No | 0.909 | 0.960 | $409.98 | +$21.73 |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day? · No | 0.660 | 0.963 | $42.86 | +$13.47 |
| Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.882France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
- +$2.1kat 0.872Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$2.1kat 0.900Will the US add more than 250,000 jobs in October?
- +$1.9kat 0.972No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
- +$1.7kat 0.900Iran strike on US military before November?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 10:01 | Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.66 | $29.39 |
| 09-28 11:42 | UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? | SELL | 0.9602114525 | $231.91 |
| 09-28 11:40 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.2090533115 | $637.61 |
| 09-28 11:39 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.2306649238 | $1.1k |
| 09-28 11:38 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | SELL | 0.5354732665 | $156.53 |
| 09-28 11:36 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.32 | $64.00 |
| 09-28 11:19 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.8829729482 | $3.3k |
| 09-28 11:18 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.7991104584 | $2.2k |
| 09-28 11:18 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | BUY | 0.76 | $222.17 |
| 09-28 11:18 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.5797869877 | $240.34 |
| 09-28 11:17 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.5312405809 | $1000.00 |
| 09-28 11:17 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 09-28 06:15 | Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.9091139418 | $388.25 |
| 09-27 21:58 | Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.9294937563 | $55.08 |
| 09-25 21:41 | Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | SELL | 0.75 | $37.50 |