0x49a39e30e986c7f9587803c0d30d4eb9344ead7d
- Realised P&L
- $-1.38
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 72
- Open portfolio
- $19.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded72
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? · No | 0.880 | 0.991 | $9.57 | +$1.07 |
| Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? · No | 0.060 | 0.421 | $7.02 | +$6.02 |
| Will James Harden play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.935 | 0.977 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 TOUR Championship? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.054 | $0.55 | −$0.46 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 TOUR Championship? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.120 | $0.52 | −$0.48 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.085 | $0.47 | −$0.53 |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 TOUR Championship? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.047 | $0.22 | −$0.78 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.037 | $0.18 | −$0.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.83at 0.048Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$8.49at 0.702Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$7.05at 0.621Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$6.26at 0.670US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$5.11at 0.610Bulls vs. Bucks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 20:58 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | BUY | 0.3499999475 | $3.00 |
| 07-19 20:56 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6209999865 | $11.55 |
| 07-16 21:53 | Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.638 | $1.45 |
| 07-09 08:50 | Will James Harden play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.9349996307 | $1.00 |
| 07-06 20:50 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.048 | $1.95 |
| 07-06 20:50 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.8299999895 | $3.95 |
| 07-06 19:27 | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0839999294 | $1.00 |
| 07-06 19:27 | Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 21:43 | Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 20:58 | Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 20:54 | Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.4389998169 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 20:53 | Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.5619998898 | $1.00 |
| 07-04 22:22 | Paraguay vs. France: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $1.00 |
| 06-14 17:20 | Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY | 0.7399998964 | $5.00 |
| 06-12 23:39 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.1929998498 | $1.00 |