0x496ddda3017677fc8f5cfc9a401650fd287be095
0x496ddda3017677fc8f5cfc9a401650fd287be095
- Realised P&L
- $3.87
- Volume
- $187.87
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $5.14
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B? · No | 0.730 | 0.880 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.275 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $167.50 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.795 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.395 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.135 | $0.42 | −$0.58 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.130 | $0.18 | −$0.82 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.530 | 0.070 | $0.13 | −$0.87 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.050 | $0.13 | −$0.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.14at 0.247Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in August?
- +$2.31at 0.308SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1?
- +$1.78at 0.360Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026?
- +$1.75at 0.369Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $207.50 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$1.75at 0.369SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 15:06 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 07:05 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $167.50 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 23:05 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:16 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:49 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:32 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 21:58 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $167.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 09:54 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 01:13 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 17:12 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 08:11 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 00:08 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 15:35 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:06 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $183 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 13:33 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |