0x4924676874847553e6ad753651104138508f3b79
0x4924676874847553e6ad753651104138508f3b79
- Realised P&L
- $4.81
- Volume
- $262.19
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $6.79
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.875 | $1.37 | +$0.37 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.245 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.835 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $177.50 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.335 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.345 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.335 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
| Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.235 | $0.55 | −$0.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$5.62at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
- +$3.56at 0.360US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 04:29 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $177.50 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 19:58 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 11:55 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 02:42 | Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 13:12 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 05:12 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 21:04 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 10:50 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 01:04 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 00:03 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 11:36 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 10:59 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.137 | $1.25 |
| 09-11 10:59 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.73 | $2.47 |
| 09-11 10:58 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.6 | $2.79 |
| 09-10 15:24 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.5899999145 | $2.00 |